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AIAI and the CFO: What Changes in the Finance FunctionArtificial intelligence will not replace the finance function. It will change what finance is paid for. Work that can be described will be automated; work that requires judgement will become more valuable.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 4 min readAIAnthropic's Prospectus Reveals the True Price of Building IntelligenceRevenue up fourteenfold, an $80bn accounting loss and half a trillion dollars of computing commitments. The filing tells investors less about artificial intelligence than about the economics of the companies that sell it.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 5 min readAIBig Tech's $700bn Year: Who Pays If the Bet Disappoints?The four largest American technology companies are on course to spend more than $700bn on capital investment this year, most of it on artificial intelligence. The money is real. So is the question of who carries the risk.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 4 min readAIBorrowing for Intelligence: The Debt Behind the AI Build-OutThe companies building artificial intelligence no longer pay for it from cash alone. They are borrowing on a scale that is changing the bond market, and the risks are financial before they are technological.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 6 min readUK Autumn Budget 2026Breathing Space, at a Price: What Healey's Budget Means for Savers, Founders and Small FirmsBeneath the arguments about fiscal headroom, the Autumn Budget quietly rewrites the arithmetic for anyone who saves, builds a company or sells online.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 5 min readAfricaCentral Africa's Central Bank Is Swimming Against the TideWhile the Fed tightens and the ECB prepares to follow, the BEAC cut its policy rate in June and has held it since. That choice is about to be tested, and Cameroon has the most at stake.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 4 min readEconomicsChina's Two-Speed Recovery: Factories Run, Households HesitateThird-quarter growth of 4.5 per cent beat expectations and keeps Beijing on course for its target. The figures beneath it describe an economy that still relies on exports and industry while consumers and property lag behind.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 3 min readLeadershipCuriosity and Humility: The Two Disciplines of Good Financial LeadershipTechnical skill gets you into finance. It does not keep you right. The leaders worth following share two habits no spreadsheet teaches: they keep asking why, and they assume they might be wrong.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 5 min readAfricaFrom Mobile Money to Capital Markets: Africa's Next Financial LeapAfrica leapfrogged landlines and bank branches. The next leap is harder and more important: turning the savings that now travel through phones into long-term capital for African growth.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 5 min readEconomicsOil at $115: The Shock the World Hoped Would Pass Is Becoming the BaselineBrent has climbed back above $115 a barrel as attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz continue. For central banks, finance ministers and African budgets, the question is no longer how to ride out a spike but how to live with a new price.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 4 min readAfricaSenegal's Debt Test Is a Test for All of Africa's BorrowersA $2.2bn IMF programme, a restructuring of eurobonds and a budget rejected in committee. How Dakar handles the coming weeks will shape how markets price every African sovereign.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 4 min readEconomicsThe ECB's Pause Is a Promise About DecemberEuro area inflation has jumped to 3.8 per cent on energy prices. The European Central Bank is expected to hold rates on Thursday, but the real message will be about what comes next.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 4 min readEconomicsThe Fed's Real Decision Is in DecemberMarkets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates at the end of its October meeting. With oil above $110 and most officials pencilling in another rise, the harder question is what happens at the last meeting of the year.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 4 min readEconomicsThe IMF Sees a World Growing ApartGlobal growth is holding up at 3.1 per cent, according to the Fund's latest outlook. Look beneath the average and you find growth concentrated in fewer countries, inflation rising again and the poorest energy importers losing ground.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 3 min readFinanceThe Record IPO Year That Isn't Quite What It SeemsAmerican listings have raised more money in 2026 than in any year in history. Look closer and you find fewer deals, extreme concentration and a window that is wide open for giants and barely ajar for everyone else.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 5 min readFinanceWhy Gold Is Falling in a Time of WarConflict in the Gulf, oil above $110 and inflation rising again: in theory, perfect conditions for gold. Instead the metal is more than $1,000 below its January peak. The explanation lies in the price of money.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 4 min readUK Autumn Budget 2026Why the Bank of England Is About to Raise Rates AgainInflation is climbing, the Budget props up demand and markets treat a rise as a foregone conclusion. On 5 November the Bank is likely to take its benchmark rate to 4 per cent, and the reasons matter more than the move.Analysis · 28 October 2026 · 5 min readLeadershipWhy Smart Organisations Make Bad DecisionsMost bad decisions in companies are not made by foolish people. They are made by capable people inside structures that reward the wrong behaviour. Change the structure and the decisions improve.Analysis · 27 October 2026 · 5 min readEconomicsThe Price of Time: Britain's 6% Gilt Has Just Ended the Era of Free Slow MoneyA 6% gilt marks the end of an era in which slow, opaque money was free. The winners of the next decade will be those who make time cheap again.Analysis · 15 October 2026 · 8 min read · PDFAIIntelligence on Tap: Who Will Own the Meter?Intelligence is no longer just a technology. It has become a matter of state, a matter of geopolitics and, very soon, a monthly bill.Analysis · 6 October 2026 · 5 min read

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Why I write

Finance is too important to be left to jargon.

Every rate decision, every bond auction, every data centre built with borrowed money ends up in someone's salary, rent or business plan. I write to understand these choices, and to make them understandable.

I write with curiosity, because the most useful question in economics is still why, and with humility, because markets correct anyone who is too sure of themselves. And I write from Africa as much as from London or New York, because the next chapters of the global economy will not be written only in the old capitals.

This is my notebook: analyses, opinion, essays, charts and the words of others that shape my thinking. The views are my own. Disagreement is welcome.

Notes

98 notes

The words that shape my thinking, from economists, investors, leaders and African thinkers, and a few lines from my own essays. Each comes with a commentary: open a note to read why it matters today.

Economics
“In the long run we are all dead.”
John Maynard Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform, 1923Keynes is often quoted as if he were dismissing the future.Read more →
Economics
“The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”
John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory, 1936This is the most honest sentence in economics.Read more →
Economics
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
Milton Friedman, 1970Friedman's line is a starting point, not the whole story.Read more →
Economics
“Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government programme.”
Milton FriedmanEvery government announces temporary measures in a crisis: subsidies, tax reliefs, emergency spending.Read more →
Economics
“There is no such thing as a free lunch.”
Title of a book by Milton Friedman, 1975The phrase is older than Friedman, but he made it a principle.Read more →
Economics
“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”
Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776Smith's insight is that markets coordinate millions of self-interested decisions into outcomes that serve others, without anyone planning them.Read more →
Economics
“Economics is a study of mankind in the ordinary business of life.”
Alfred Marshall, Principles of Economics, 1890Marshall's definition is a reminder that economics is about people, not equations.Read more →
Economics
“Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.”
Paul Krugman, The Age of Diminished Expectations, 1990Krugman's line explains why some countries grow rich and others stall.Read more →
Economics
“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”
Friedrich Hayek, The Fatal Conceit, 1988Hayek warns against the planner's pride: the belief that a central authority can know enough to design an economy.Read more →
Economics
“Development can be seen as a process of expanding the real freedoms that people enjoy.”
Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom, 1999Sen changed how we measure progress.Read more →
Economics
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
Herbert Stein, economist (Stein’s Law)Stein's Law sounds obvious, which is why it is so often ignored.Read more →
Economics
“Stability is destabilizing.”
Hyman MinskyMinsky's insight is that long periods of calm encourage risk-taking.Read more →
Economics
“The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.”
Thomas SowellSowell captures the permanent tension between economics and politics.Read more →
Economics
“You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”
Robert Solow, New York Times Book Review, 1987Solow wrote this in 1987.Read more →
Economics
“Inflation is taxation without legislation.”
Milton FriedmanInflation transfers wealth from savers and wage earners to debtors, including governments, without any vote.Read more →
Economics
“A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.”
Oscar Wilde, Lady Windermere’s Fan, 1892Wilde was writing about people, but the line describes a common failure in finance.Read more →
Economics
“Debt is the slavery of the free.”
Publilius Syrus, 1st century BCPublilius Syrus wrote two thousand years ago, but the warning fits every era of cheap credit.Read more →
Economics
“Remember that time is money.”
Benjamin Franklin, Advice to a Young Tradesman, 1748Franklin's advice to a young tradesman became my starting point for The Price of Time.Read more →
Economics
“Money is a terrible master but an excellent servant.”
P. T. BarnumBarnum's line applies to companies as well as individuals.Read more →
Economics
“The job of the Federal Reserve is to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.”
Attributed to William McChesney Martin, Fed Chair 1951–1970The image attributed to William McChesney Martin captures the loneliness of central banking.Read more →
Finance
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
Warren Buffett, letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, 2008Buffett's distinction is the foundation of investing.Read more →
Finance
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
Warren Buffett, letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, 1986This is the simplest investment advice and the hardest to follow.Read more →
Finance
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
Warren Buffett, letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, 1989Buffett learned this from Charlie Munger, after years of buying mediocre businesses cheaply.Read more →
Finance
“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.”
Warren BuffettBuffett's rule is a statement about the mathematics of losses.Read more →
Finance
“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
Warren BuffettVolatility is not the same as risk.Read more →
Finance
“After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”
Warren Buffett, letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, 2001When liquidity is abundant, weak business models and excessive leverage are hidden.Read more →
Finance
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
Benjamin Graham, as quoted by Warren BuffettGraham's distinction explains why prices can move far from value.Read more →
Finance
“The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.”
Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor, 1949Graham understood that the greatest danger to returns is behaviour, not information.Read more →
Finance
“The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.”
Benjamin GrahamReturns are uncertain; risks can be managed.Read more →
Finance
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.”
Sir John TempletonEvery bubble has its story about why the old rules no longer apply: the internet, financial innovation, emerging markets, crypto, artificial intelligence.Read more →
Finance
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”
Sir John TempletonTempleton's description of the market cycle is a map for investors.Read more →
Finance
“Know what you own, and know why you own it.”
Peter LynchLynch's advice is a defence against fashion.Read more →
Finance
“But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?”
Alan Greenspan, Washington, 5 December 1996Greenspan asked the question in 1996, three years before the dot-com peak.Read more →
Finance
“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”
Mario Draghi, London, 26 July 2012Draghi's three words saved the euro without the ECB spending a single euro at the time.Read more →
Finance
“I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”
James Carville, 1993Carville's joke contains a serious truth: bond markets can discipline governments more effectively than voters.Read more →
Finance
“Diversification is protection against ignorance.”
Warren BuffettBuffett is being deliberately provocative: concentrated positions in businesses you understand deeply can outperform.Read more →
Finance
“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.”
Rahm Emanuel, 2008Emanuel's line is often quoted cynically, but it describes something real: crises create the political will for reforms that would be impossible in calm times.Read more →
Finance
“Your margin is my opportunity.”
Jeff BezosBezos's warning to incumbents is a law of competition: high margins attract competitors.Read more →
Leadership
“Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things.”
Peter DruckerDrucker's distinction is essential for anyone who leads.Read more →
Leadership
“The most important thing in communication is hearing what isn’t said.”
Peter DruckerIn organisations, the most important information is often missing from the report: the risk nobody mentions, the doubt nobody voices, the customer who quietly leaves.Read more →
Leadership
“Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality.”
Warren BennisA vision without execution is a slogan.Read more →
Leadership
“The task of leadership is not to put greatness into people, but to elicit it, for the greatness is there already.”
John BuchanBuchan describes leadership as discovery rather than command.Read more →
Leadership
“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”
Dwight D. EisenhowerEisenhower's paradox explains the value of planning.Read more →
Leadership
“The price of greatness is responsibility.”
Winston Churchill, Harvard, 1943Churchill spoke in 1943, in the middle of a war.Read more →
Leadership
“The buck stops here.”
Sign on President Harry S. Truman’s deskTruman's desk sign is the clearest statement of accountability in public life.Read more →
Leadership
“Before you are a leader, success is all about growing yourself. When you become a leader, success is all about growing others.”
Jack WelchWelch describes a transition many people find difficult.Read more →
Leadership
“Only the paranoid survive.”
Andy Grove, title of his 1996 bookGrove's title is about vigilance, not fear.Read more →
Leadership
“Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.”
Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1995Gates's warning applies to individuals, companies and countries.Read more →
Leadership
“Your most unhappy customers are your greatest source of learning.”
Bill Gates, Business @ the Speed of Thought, 1999Complaints are free consultancy.Read more →
Leadership
“Stay hungry, stay foolish.”
Steve Jobs, Stanford commencement address, 2005Jobs borrowed the phrase from the Whole Earth Catalog.Read more →
Leadership
“If you are not embarrassed by the first version of your product, you’ve launched too late.”
Reid HoffmanHoffman's advice is about speed of learning.Read more →
Leadership
“It remains Day 1.”
Jeff Bezos, letter to Amazon shareholders, 2016Bezos uses "Day 1" to describe the mindset of a start-up: customer obsession, speed and experimentation.Read more →
Leadership
“I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious.”
Albert Einstein, letter to Carl Seelig, 1952Einstein's modesty contains a method.Read more →
Leadership
“The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing.”
Albert Einstein, LIFE magazine, 1955Questioning keeps knowledge alive.Read more →
Leadership
“Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom.”
Lao Tzu, Tao Te ChingLao Tzu describes the difference between analysis and wisdom.Read more →
Leadership
“Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.”
Proverbs 16:18The proverb describes a pattern repeated throughout financial history: the bank that believed it was too strong to fail, the investor convinced of his own genius, the government certain that markets would always lend.Read more →
Leadership
“Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.”
Nelson Mandela, 2003Mandela understood that lasting change comes from people's capabilities.Read more →
Leadership
“A good head and a good heart are always a formidable combination.”
Nelson MandelaMandela's combination of intelligence and humanity is a model for leadership.Read more →
Leadership
“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”
Nelson MandelaEvery significant achievement looks unrealistic before it happens: ending apartheid, building a new industry, transforming a company.Read more →
Leadership
“If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.”
Desmond TutuTutu's statement challenges the comfort of neutrality.Read more →
AI
“I propose to consider the question, “Can machines think?””
Alan Turing, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, 1950Turing opened his 1950 paper by reframing an impossible question as a practical test: can a machine's conversation be distinguished from a human's?Read more →
AI
“We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done.”
Alan Turing, 1950Turing's closing sentence is a model of humility about technology.Read more →
AI
“Machines take me by surprise with great frequency.”
Alan Turing, 1950Turing admitted that even simple machines surprised him.Read more →
AI
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
Alan Kay, 1971Kay's sentence is the motto of every builder.Read more →
AI
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the FutureClarke's law explains both the excitement and the danger of AI.Read more →
AI
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
Roy Amara (Amara’s Law)Amara's law describes the typical path of new technologies: inflated expectations, disappointment, then deep and lasting change.Read more →
AI
“The future is already here. It’s just not very evenly distributed.”
William GibsonGibson's observation is about inequality.Read more →
AI
“Software is eating the world.”
Marc Andreessen, Wall Street Journal, 2011Andreessen argued in 2011 that every industry would become a software industry.Read more →
AI
“AI is the new electricity.”
Andrew Ng, 2017Ng's analogy matches my own argument that intelligence is becoming a utility.Read more →
AI
“AI is one of the most important things humanity is working on. It is more profound than electricity or fire.”
Sundar Pichai, 2018Pichai's comparison with fire and electricity is ambitious.Read more →
AI
“Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history.”
Stephen Hawking, 2014Hawking's full warning continued: it might also be the last, unless we learn to avoid the risks.Read more →
AI
“The real problem is not whether machines think but whether men do.”
B. F. Skinner, Contingencies of Reinforcement, 1969Skinner's line is more relevant now than when he wrote it.Read more →
AI
“Data is the new oil.”
Clive Humby, 2006Humby's analogy highlights value: raw data, like crude oil, must be refined to become useful.Read more →
AI
“Tokens are to intelligence what kilowatt-hours are to electricity.”
Mohamed Ramadan, Intelligence on Tap, 2026This is the core idea of my analysis Intelligence on Tap.Read more →
AI
“The next decades will not be decided by who uses AI. Everyone will. They will be decided by who produces it, who finances it, and who sets the price of a thought.”
Mohamed Ramadan, Intelligence on Tap, 2026Everyone will use AI, just as everyone uses electricity.Read more →
AI
“Move fast and break things.”
Facebook’s early internal mottoFacebook's early motto captured the culture of a generation of technology companies.Read more →
Africa
“We face neither East nor West: we face forward.”
Kwame Nkrumah, 1960Nkrumah's declaration of non-alignment in 1960 remains a powerful idea for Africa today, as the continent navigates competition between the United States, China, Europe, the Gulf and others.Read more →
Africa
“Seek ye first the political kingdom and all else shall be added unto you.”
Kwame NkrumahNkrumah believed political independence was the precondition for economic progress.Read more →
Africa
“Africa must unite.”
Kwame Nkrumah, title of his 1963 bookNkrumah's call for unity is finding a modern, economic form in the African Continental Free Trade Area.Read more →
Africa
“The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership.”
Chinua Achebe, The Trouble with Nigeria, 1983Achebe's diagnosis applies far beyond Nigeria.Read more →
Africa
“Until the lions have their own historians, the history of the hunt will always glorify the hunter.”
African proverb, popularised by Chinua AchebeThis proverb is about narrative power.Read more →
Africa
“Women don’t want a seat at the table. We don’t like the way it is. We want to redesign the table.”
Graça MachelGraça Machel's words go beyond representation.Read more →
Africa
“If you educate a man you educate an individual, but if you educate a woman you educate a nation.”
James Emman Kwegyir AggreyAggrey's insight is confirmed by modern evidence: educating girls and women has powerful effects on health, family incomes and the education of the next generation.Read more →
Africa
“I am because we are.”
Ubuntu, Southern African philosophyUbuntu expresses a view of humanity as interconnected.Read more →
Africa
“If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.”
African proverbThe proverb describes a trade-off every leader faces.Read more →
Africa
“However long the night, the dawn will break.”
African proverbThe proverb speaks of resilience.Read more →
Africa
“Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors.”
African proverbDifficult conditions build capability.Read more →
Africa
“Wisdom is like a baobab tree; no one individual can embrace it.”
Akan proverbThe Akan proverb teaches that no single person holds all wisdom.Read more →
Africa
“When there is no enemy within, the enemies outside cannot hurt you.”
African proverbThe proverb places responsibility inside.Read more →
Africa
“Knowledge is power. Information is liberating. Education is the premise of progress, in every society, in every family.”
Kofi AnnanKofi Annan linked education to progress at every level.Read more →
Africa
“It’s the little things citizens do. That’s what will make the difference.”
Wangari MaathaiWangari Maathai built a movement by planting trees, one at a time.Read more →
Africa
“He who feeds you, controls you.”
Thomas SankaraSankara's warning is about dependence.Read more →
Africa
“The most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed.”
Steve Biko, 1971Biko understood that oppression works through minds as well as laws.Read more →
Africa
“Africa cannot afford to be only a consumer of intelligence.”
Mohamed Ramadan, Intelligence on Tap, 2026From my analysis Intelligence on Tap.Read more →
Africa
“Africa does not only pay more to borrow. It pays more to receive.”
Mohamed Ramadan, The Price of Time, 2026From The Price of Time.Read more →
Economics
“The real price of a cross-border payment is not the rate. It is the rate multiplied by the time.”
Mohamed Ramadan, The Price of Time, 2026The central formula of The Price of Time.Read more →
Finance
“The bond market has no ideology. … It asks one question of everyone: what is your time worth?”
Mohamed Ramadan, The Price of Time, 2026The closing idea of The Price of Time.Read more →
Leadership
“A machine can prepare ten financing structures in a minute. Choosing the right one, and convincing a bank and a client to sign it, remains deeply human.”
Mohamed Ramadan, Intelligence on Tap, 2026From Intelligence on Tap.Read more →

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Research Report · No. 1The Price of Time: Britain's 6% Gilt Has Just Ended the Era of Free Slow MoneyMohamed Ramadan · October 2026

The Price of Time: Britain's 6% Gilt Has Just Ended the Era of Free Slow Money

The full analysis with its six charts, formatted for reading, printing and sharing.

  1. A 6% gilt marks the end of an era in which slow, opaque money was free.
  2. When the base rate of the world rises, Africa's bill rises with it, even if nothing in Africa has changed.
  3. £1 million stuck for three days now costs about £308 in lost interest, against £8 in 2021.
  4. Sending $200 to sub-Saharan Africa costs 8.46% on average, against 6.36% worldwide and a UN target of 3%.
Mohamed Ramadan

About

Mohamed Ramadan

Mohamed Ramadan writes about economics, finance, leadership and artificial intelligence: where capital goes, why it moves, and what it changes for the people and institutions it touches.

He previously served as Chief Financial Officer, and before that as a financial analyst alongside banks and advisory firms. He holds a master's degree in supply chain management from Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas, as well as a master's in finance and accounting and a bachelor's in business administration.

What drives him is curiosity, the habit of asking why a number moved before deciding what it means, and humility, because markets humble everyone and good analysis starts by admitting what we do not know.

Beyond finance, he is a co-founder of YouthShare Initiatives, an aid association. Away from the markets, he loves the mountains and hiking.

Chief Financial OfficerFormer CFOAnalystAlongside banks and advisory firmsCo-founderYouthShare InitiativesOutdoorsMountains and hiking

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